Wheat Fading into the New Week

Wheat futures are beginning the week with a continuation of Friday’s fade, as the board is ~1% weaker into the day session. Chicago futures went home 9 to 11 cents in the red on Friday, but still 29 cents above the previous Friday’s close. KC HRW futures settled with 3 to 6 ½ cent losses on the day, but held onto a 14 cent gain for the week. Spring wheat futures closed 7 ¾ to 8 ¼ cents in the red. March HRS finished the week with a net ¾ cent loss. The cash average price for wheat from the WASDE report was a dime higher than last month at $7.30. 

 

The delivery games continued in December CBT wheat, with 95 contracts put out and Marex customers getting the bulk of them. 

Commitment of Traders data showed SRW wheat spec traders closed out 21k shorts, reducing their net short to 96,222 contracts. Managed money traders also covered shorts in KC wheat, leaving the group on a 38,858 contract net short as of 12/5. Managed funds were shown with a 26,891 contract net short for MPLS wheat, 2k contracts weaker also via short covering. 

In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA increased expected SRW exports by 30 mbu to 175 mbu, while also trimming the white wheat by 5. That made total wheat exports 25 mbu higher to 725 mbu. Projected carryout was trimmed to 659 mbu, compared to the UNCH 684 trade average guess going into the release. 

The global wheat picture saw a 1 MMT boost for Australian wheat production and a 950k MT boost for Canada. The global carryout was 500k MT tighter to 258.2, compared to the 100k MT looser carryout expected. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.15, down 11 cents, currently down 11 cents

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.31 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents, currently down 7 1/4 cents

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.61, down 6 1/2 cents, currently down 8 1/2 cents

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.29 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents