Soybeans Show Follow Through Buying Overnight

Soybeans are posting 5 to 10 cent higher trade on Tuesday morning. They rallied sharply after a weak start to the Monday session, with contracts pushing higher into the close, up 12 ¾ to 27 cents across the board. Modest short covering was noted, with preliminary open interest dropping 1,245 contracts (all in nearby January). Front month Soymeal  futures pulled out of the early weakness to post $1.80 to $6.90/ton gains on the day.  Soybean Oil futures were 90 to 124 points higher.

US soybean shipments during the week that ended on November 16 totaled 1.609 MMT (59.14 mbu), which was a drop of 22.4% vs. last week and a 6-week low. Compared to the same week last year, they were down 35.5%. Just over 1.005 MMT was headed to China during that week, with Germany next up at 121,405 MT. Export shipments YTD to all destinations have totaled 15.913 MMT (584.8 bu), which is a 3-year low for this week and down 8.3% vs. last year. 

Chinese Import data showed October bean imports totaling 5.16 MMT, with a large 4.81 MMT coming from Bazil and just 228,264 MT sourced from the US.  Chinese moves to reduce the size of their sow herd (due to overcapacity) are a potential drag on their domestic meal demand. 

Javier Milei is the new president of Argentina as voters tired of high inflation and wanted to try a new direction. He has to deal with a hostile Congress and some of his sweeping proposals such as adopting the dollar as the official currency and curbing grain export taxes may take a while to be a market factor. He will not take office until December 10. 

Weekly planting data from AgRural shows Brazil at 68% complete for soybeans, down from 80% last year. That is the slowest start since 2019/20.

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.67 1/4, up 27 cents, currently up 10 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.07 3/8, up 27 1/8 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.83 1/4, up 26 3/4 cents, currently up 9 1/2 cents

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.95, up 26 cents, currently up 9 cents