Thursday Bounce in Wheat Futures

Midday prints show wheat futures are up double digits with gains of over 3%. Australia projects farm incomes to fall ~41% this season, citing El Nino dryness. 

Weekly wheat bookings were shown at 273k MT for the week that ended 9/28. That was near the low end of the expected range. USDA showed 167k MT of the weekly sale was HRS, leaving total HRS commitments at 3.43 MMT or 52% of the WASDE projection. Total commitments for all wheat was 9.44 MMT through 9/28, or 41% of the WASDE projection. 

Monthly Census data confirmed 1.454 MMT of wheat was exported in August. That was down 15% from July and was the weakest Aug total since 1971. The season’s total shipment is at 159.6 mbu, or 44 mbu behind last year’s pace. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported 2.99m HA planted to winter grains. That included 1.7m HA of winter wheat - +58% from last year. 

Interfax reported Russian grain exports at 17.7 MMT for the MY through 9/21, which includes 13.5 MMT of wheat.  Ukraine’s current wheat production estimate is 21.7 MMT, a bit below the 22.5 MMT USDA is using. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.78 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents,

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.07 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $4.95 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents,

Dec 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.88, up 21 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $6.26 1/1, up 21 7/8 cents,

Dec 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $7.31 1/2, up 19 3/4 cents,