Many of the front month wheat futures saw new LoC lows on Friday. SRW dropped 20 to 37 cents with a 6.4% loss in the Dec contract. That finished the week down by 38 cents and 60 ½ cents lower for the month. Sep ’24 HRW futures printed a LoC low on Friday, though the front months were their lowest since Sep ’21 on 20c losses. December HRW fell 47 ½ cents for the week and closed the month of September down by 63 ½ cents. Spring wheat futures were down 1.8% to 5% on Friday, leaving the Dec contract at a 53 ½ cent loss for the week, flipping the month’s move to a 51 ½ cent loss.
CFTC reported managed money traders were 96,384 contracts net short in CBT wheat as of 9/26. That was little changed on net through the week with 3.3k new longs and 2.9k new shorts added. Spec traders were shown 4k contracts more net short in KC wheat via net new selling to 16.4k contracts. Managed money traders were 15,657 contracts net short in MGE wheat as of 9/26.
The quarterly Grain Stocks report had 1.78 bbu of wheat supplies on Sep 1. That was 1.7 mbu looser compared to last year, as the average trade guess was to sees 8 mbu tighter. Q1 disappearance was implied as 1.198 bbu, compared to 1.08 bbu last year. Not much market moving there.
The Small Grains summary had wheat production listed as 1.812 bbu, compared to the 1.734 bbu reported in the Sep Crop Production data. The trade was looking for a 2 mbu cut and got a 78 mbu bearish surprise. By class, NASS put 601 mbu for HRW (compared to the prior 585 forecast and the 584 mbu average trade guess), SRW at 449 mbu (from 413 previously), 505 for other spring (450 previously), and 59 mbu for durum (from 57).
The European Commission estimates wheat production at 125.3 MMT, down 400k MT from their prior figure. Exports were left at 32 MMT.
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.41 1/2, down 37 1/4 cents,
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.73 1/2, down 33 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat was $4.55 5/8, down 37 cents,
Dec 23 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.63 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $5.92, down 21 1/4 cents,
Dec 23 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.09 1/4, down 37 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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