Corn Futures Falling Out of NASS Report

Corn futures dropped in tandem with the bean and wheat markets on Friday. The 7 ¼ to 11 ¾ cent losses left Dec at a net ½ cent loss for the week and a 1 ½ cent loss for the month of September. 

Dalian Corn Prices were 14 yuan (6c) higher going into the Golden Week holiday break at 2,616 yuan/MT (~$9.10/bu). The Dalian market will resume activity 10/9. 

CFTC’s weekly update showed spec traders added 22k shorts for a 168,606 contract net short as of 9/26. The commercials added 39.3k new hedges during the week, with the additional new longs weakening the group’s net short to 16,422 contracts. 

USDA’s National weekly Ethanol report showed cash prices were mostly higher for the week, within 10c, from $2.20-$2.38/gal regionally. The DDGS market saw prices from $185 to $220/ton regionally, mostly $2-$10 lower. Corn oil quotes were also mostly lower for the week with 1-3c losses to 66-70 c/lb regionally. 

USDA’s quarterly update showed 1.361 bbu of corn stocks on Sep 1. That was 77.7 mbu tighter than the average trade guess and was 90.7 mbu below the WASDE estimate. Implied Q4 demand was 2.746 bbu, compared to the average trade guess of 2.667 bbu; Q4 demand last year was 226 mbu greater though stocks were 15.6 mbu looser. The carryout and use discrepancies led USDA to revise the 2022 crop size, with a 0.1 bpa higher yield (173.4) and a 100k acre cut for harvested area. On net that left the final 2022 production at 13.715 bbu (-15 mbu). 

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $4.76 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $4.47 5/8, down 13 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $4.91 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

May 24 Corn  closed at $5.00 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents,