HCA Healthcare Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

With a market cap of around $88 billion, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is a leading healthcare services provider in the United States that owns and operates hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, and various outpatient and home health services. It delivers a wide range of medical services, including inpatient, surgical, diagnostic, rehabilitation, and specialty care through its extensive network of healthcare facilities.

Shares of HCA Healthcare have lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. HCA stock has risen 3.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 26.7%. In addition, the stock has declined 15.5% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 8.2% return.

Looking closer, shares of the Nashville, Tennessee-based company have underperformed the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLV) 11.9% increase over the past 52 weeks.

Shares of HCA Healthcare tumbled 8.8% on Apr. 24 after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $3.80 billion, despite revenue rising 4% year-over-year to $19.1 billion. Investor sentiment was hurt by the company’s disclosure that it did not experience the usual seasonal volume increase, as respiratory-related admissions and emergency room visits fell 42% and 32% year-over-year, respectively, while January winter storms further reduced patient volumes in certain markets. 

Additionally, HCA reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $15.55 billion to $16.45 billion, which came in below analyst expectations.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect HCA’s adjusted EPS to rise 6.6% year-over-year to $30.07. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion. 

Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 14 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” nine “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

On Apr. 27, Truist cut its price target for HCA Healthcare to $535 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

The mean price target of $513.62 represents a 30.1% premium to HCA’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $635 suggests a 60.8% potential upside.