Wheat Futures Dropping Double Digits

The Chicago wheat market is holding relatively firm with 1.1% to 1.6% losses of as much as a dime. The hard reds are trading 1.6% to 1.9% lower in Minneapolis and 1.8% to 2.5% lower in KC so far for Wednesday. 

Survey respondents are looking for FAS to report between 250k MT and 500k MT of wheat sales for the week that ended 9/21. Wire sources show Egypt booked 170k MT of wheat from Romania and Bulgaria. 

Analysts are looking for NASS to show 1.77 bbu of Sep wheat stocks in the quarterly report. That would be 7 mbu tighter yr/yr on a 26 mbu tighter supply via WASDE. For the Small Grains report also slated for Friday, analysts are looking for a 2 mbu reduced production outlook for wheat. The average trade guess is to see 1.732 mbu, though estimates range from 1.689 bbu to 1.757. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported winter wheat planting reached 1.02m HA as of 9/26. That is 64% ahead of last year, mainly reflecting a larger area dedicated to wheat. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry had 1.57 MMT of grain shipments for the month of Sep thus far. That trails last year’s 3.2 MMT pace, with Russian destruction of export facilities hampering movement. Egypt is reportedly in direct negotiations (no tender) with Russia for 1-2 MMT of Russian wheat.  EU soft wheat exports for the marketing year were 6.88 MMT as of 9/24. That would be down 27% from last year at the same point. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.79 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.07, down 9 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $4.92, down 9 3/4 cents,

Dec 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.94, down 16 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $6.22 1/4, down 16 5/8 cents,

Dec 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $7.52 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents,