After spiking higher on the Black Sea updates earlier in the week, the Friday wheat trade is pulled the premium back out. Chicago SRW futures ended the session 4 to 4 ¼ cents in the red. KC HRW closed Friday 5 to 8 ¾ cents weaker. Front month spring wheat prices settled 4 to 4 ¼ cents lower on the last trade day of the week.
The weekly Commitment of Traders showed managed money funds added more longs than shorts in SRW wheat during the week that ended 9/5. That left the group with a 78,681 contract net long. In KC wheat, the funds were adding shorts and pushed their net short to 9,838 contacts. Spring wheat spec trders were shown at an 11,413 contract net short after net new selling.
Winter wheat planting may take a pause in the coming week, as NOOA’s updated 7-day QPF has 1” to 3” of rainfall accumulations for S.W. NE through Northern TX.
USDA reported 370,341 MT of wheat was sold for export during the week that ended 8/31. That was near the low end of the expected range. By class, 32% was HRS and 29% was white. Durum also made up 60k MT of the week’s sale. Total wheat commitments trail last year’s pace by 21% with 7.875 MMT (289 mbu).
South Korea reportedly booked 88.26k MT of US wheat in its import tender.
WASDE report estimates range from a 21 mbu looser carryout to a 29 mbu tighter carryout with a 614 mbu ending stocks expected on average. Survey respondents expect WAOB to trim the global wheat carryout, though the full range is from +2.3 MMT to -5.6 MMT.
StatsCan data had 3.584 MMT of wheat stocks for 7/31. That was 79k MT tighter yr/yr while the average pre-report estimate was looking for looser stocks.
The Ukraine has begun exporting grain through Croatian ports. Volumes were not yet disclosed, but are implied to be light, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko described it as “beneficial, but niche”.
Ethiopia expects wheat output to grow 27% this season and allow for export. Production is estimated at 19.5 MMT, compared to LY’s 9.7 MMT domestic consumption. Area has increased 37% and irrigated wheat area increased 54% to 35.7% of the total.
Sep 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.67 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents,
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.95 3/4, down 4 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat was $5.07, down 3 7/8 cents,
Sep 23 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.25, down 8 3/4 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $6.60 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,
Sep 23 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.43 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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