Soymeal Pushing the Rally

Front month soybean futures are working fractionally to 4 ½ cents in the black so far in the Thursday session. The AM meal quotes are another 1.5% higher. Yesterday’s product strength rebounded the CME Synthetic Soy Crush  to $2.14/bu, the highest mark since 8/10 after seeing a new low for the month on Wednesday. Front month soybeans settled the midweek session with 8 to 15 cent gains. Preliminary OI showed rotation of ownership, up only 86 contracts. Deferred Soybean Oil contracts led the day with 1.9% gains, while Sep was up by 94 points. Soymeal futures closed $6 to $6.70 higher on 1.6% gains for the day. September options expire on Friday. 

Export Sales estimates range 0k to 200k MT for old crop beans during the week that ended 8/17. New crop sales are expected to be between 550k MT and 1.25 MMT. Traders are looking for between 175k MT and 450k MT of soymeal sales in the FAS report. BO sales are expected to be below 20k MT for both old and new crop business. 

The third day of the ProFarmer Crop Tour showed an Illinois average soybean pod count at 1,270.80 in a 9 square foot area, a 1,69% increase from last year, and 0.94% above the 3-year average. Participants in western IA found an average of 1,137 pods per square, down 9.25%% from last year and up 15.15% vs. the 3-year average.

Estimates ahead of the StatsCan report run 16.1 MMT to 18.6 MMT for Canadian canola output. The average trade guess would be 730k MT lighter yr/yr at 17.4 MMT. Traders are also looking for an initial soybean outlook of 6.7 MMT compared to 6.5 MMT last year. 

Sep 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.59 1/2, up 8 cents, currently up 2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.51 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.60 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.71, up 15 cents, currently up 4 1/4 cents