Wheat Rallying on Tuesday, with Some Limit Gains Following USDA Production Update

The wheat complex is posting strong gains across all three exchanges on Tuesday. Chicago SRW is 32 to 42 cents higher so far on Tuesday. KC HRW futures are up 35 to the 45 cent limit on Tuesday. MPLS spring wheat are rallying 30 to 40 ½ cents across most contracts on Tuesday.

The USDA Crop Production report from this morning showed winter wheat production at 1.048 bbu, which was well below estimates of 1.211 bbu. HRW production was seen at 514.8 mbu, with SRW at 300.9 mbu and white winter at 231.8 mbu. All wheat production was 1.561 bbu, 186 mbu below the average estimate.

The May WASDE showed old crop stocks at 935 mbu, which was down 3 mbu from the April total, on a 7 mbu cut to food and 10 mbu increase to exports. New crop US stocks were seen at 762 mbu, compared to estimates of 845 mbu, mainly on the lower production. World stocks were 279.21 MMT on old crop, down 3.91 MMT from the April total. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were pegged at 275.04 MMT in the initial estimate.

Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 53% planted, now 2 percentage points ahead of the pace from the last 5 years (51%). Emergence was pegged at 23%. The winter wheat crop was at 61% headed, which was 16 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were down 3% to 28% gd/ex, all shifting to very poor ratings. Brugler500 index was down 9 points to 277. An average of the main HRW states was rated at 227, the lowest for this specific week since at least 2000. SRW states averaged 358, which was the lowest for this week since 2019. 

Jul 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.75 3/4, up 41 3/4 cents,

Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.88, up 39 1/4 cents,

Jul 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.31 1/4, up 45 cents,

Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.41, up 43 3/4 cents,

Jul 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $7.27, up 40 1/2 cents,

Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $7.47 1/4, up 39 1/4 cents,