Wheats Rallying into Day Trade

Futures are off their highs by about a dime, but are still +30 cents higher. Despite the double digit losses on Friday, wheats ended the week with a net gain. SRW futures were down by 21 3/4 cents to 29 1/2 cents on the day, but Sep was still up 36 cents for the week. KC HRW futures closed Friday 14 to 16 ¾ cents in the red which limited the week’s move to +31 1/4 cents for Sep. MGE spring wheat futures were 15 to 17 ¼ cents lower on the day, though Sep was still up 2 3/4 cents for the week. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed the managed money funds were pushing the short side of SRW wheat futures. The 3.3k new shorts left the group with a 54,418 contract net short as of 7/18. In KC wheat, managed money was shown 12,650 contracts net long after adding 4.8k new shorts. Spring wheat spec traders were 2,354 contracts more net long through the week at 6,587 contracts.

The International Grains Council lowered their outlook for global 23/24 wheat output by 2 MMT to 784. That is now a 19 MMT decline from last year, but still net +4 MMT from 21/22. Stocks were tightened by 1 MMT to 263. 

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.97 1/2, down 29 1/2 cents, currently up 36 3/4 cents

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.17 3/4, down 28 1/2 cents, currently up 36 3/4 cents 

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.35 1/8, down 29 3/8 cents,

Sep 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.60 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents, currently up 33 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.13 1/4, down 14 5/8 cents,

Sep 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.87, down 15 cents, currently up 31 1/2 cents