Soybeans are currently up by double digits, though Nov’s 13 1/2 cent gain only limits the week’s drop to 30 cents. Yesterday, the July soybean contract rallied by 32 cents in a bout of presumed short covering ahead of FND for futures deliveries. There were zero delivery notices posted overnight, with the oldest soybean long dated October 2022. The other contracts were fractionally mixed to 6 3/4 cents higher at the close. November saw a relatively tight range of 15 3/4 cents for the day, swinging from -5 to +10 3/4. The soymeal futures market ended the day up by $1.20 to $3.20/ton. Front month soybean oil futures were mixed with a 33 point loss in the Sep contract.
Survey respondents are looking for NASS to report 805 mbu of June 1 soybean stocks this morning. Residual use is the “solve for” variable in the equation. The full range of estimates is from 750 to 920 mbu. Last year’s June 1 stocks were 967 mbu implying a Q3 consumption of 964 million. If the trade average guess is realized with no revisions to previous data, 2022/23’s Q3 disappearance would be 880 mbu.
Soybean acreage estimates average 200k above the March intentions. The full range of survey respondents is from 87m to 89m planted acres.
The weekly Export Sales report had 227,375 MT of old crop soybean sales for the week that ended 6/22. That was a decrease from 458k MT last week and was at the low end of estimates. Total commitments were confirmed at 1.923 bbu or 96% of the USDA forecast. The 5-yr average pace would have 102% of commitments locked in at this point. Shipments reached 1.804 bbu, or 90% of the forecast, compared to 88% on average. The new crop forward book is at 3.352 MMT, or 76% smaller than last year at this time.
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.83, up 32 cents, currently up 24 cents
Nearby Cash was $13.83 1/1, up 5 5/8 cents,
Aug 23 Soybeans closed at $13.67 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents, currently up 16 1/4 cents
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.65 3/4, up 3/4 cent, currently up 13 1/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
