Overnight trade saw gains of as much as 8 cents in the active contracts, though the AM board is 1 to 3 cents higher. After some initial position squaring ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, corn futures pushed lower and ended the day just 2 cents off their lows. Futures closed with 7 3/4 to 9 cent losses across the front months.
Ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks this morning, the trade average guess is around 4.250 bbu for June 1 corn stocks. The full range of public estimates is from 4.086 bbu to 4.441 billion. Last year’s count was 4.349 billion. If the trade average guess is realized and no revisions are made, Q3’s implied consumption would be 3.15 bbu, about 260 mbu lighter pull than last year’s Q3 and primarily due to weaker exports.
Acreage estimates range from 91 million to 93 million for corn, compared to the 92 in the March Intentions report. The average trade guess would be a 1m acre trim for 23/24 corn area from the March number.
USDA reported 140,387 MT of old crop corn export sales for the week that ended 6/22. That was up from 36k MT last week and was more than the 88k MT from the same week last year. Old crop commitments reached 1.527 bbu, or 89% of the forecasted total. That compares to the 5-yr average of 101% for the date. Shipments are also behind pace at 1.348 bbu, or 78% of the forecast compared to the 5-yr average of 83%.
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.81, down 9 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $5.62 3/8, down 9 cents,
Sep 23 Corn closed at $5.23 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents, currently up 1 cent
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.28 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents, currently up 1 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
