Tuesday Soybeans Higher in AM

The early action in the soy market has beans working 3 to 5 cents higher. Meal is also up though BO is slipping so far. Beans ended Monday with 1 1/2 to 4 1/4 cent losses. Preliminary open interest shrank 4,560 contracts, mostly long liquidation in the nearby July. Soybean oil also weakened to start the week with 24 to 28 point losses. Meal was the outlier for the complex, closing Monday’s trade with $2 to $3.40/ton gains. 

The weekly Crop Progress report had 91% of soybeans planted as of 6/4. That was up 8 ppts from last week and remains 15 ppts ahead of average. Soybean emergence was 74%, up from the 56% average pace. NASS reported their initial soybean ratings, scoring the crop 62% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 362. That ranges from a 321 in MI to a 391 in LA and compares to last year’s initial score of 375. Iowa soybeans were 70% good/ex for a 377 on the Brugler500 Index, and Illinois soybeans were 51% good/ex for a 350.  

Weekly Export Inspections data had 214,247 MT of soybean shipments for the week that ended 6/1. That was down 28.8k MT from last week and was below the 370k MT shipped during the same week last year. The accumulated export program reached 48.67 MMT, or 1.25 MMT behind last year's pace. 

Survey respondents are looking for USDA to raise the old crop soybean carryout by 6.4 mbu to 221.4 in Friday’s update. The full range of estimates is from 15 mbu tighter to 25 mbu looser. The average trade guess for old crop world carryout is 100.7 MMT vs. 101 in May. 

Strategie Grains estimates the EU rapeseed crop at 20.4 MMT, up 400k MT from their prior estimate and up 1 MMT from 22/23. 

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.50, down 2 1/2 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.21 3/8, down 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.61, down 1 1/2 cents, currently up 5 cents

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $11.79 3/4, down 4 cents, currently up 4 3/4 cents