Weak Start for Wheat Market

Wheat futures are trading off their overnight lows so far into the new week, but prices are still 4 to 11 cents in the red across domestic classes. KC wheat futures led the market lower on Friday with 3% to 3.8% losses of as much as 32 3/4 cents. That left the July contract at a 52 3/4 cent loss from last week. CBT futures settled Friday 6 to 7 1/2 cents lower, with preliminary open interest rising 2,424 contracts.  July SRW dropped 30 cents for the week. Spring wheat futures ended the session with losses of as much as 3% across the front months. July HRS was down 42 cents from Friday to Friday. 

The weekly CFTC report showed managed money firms were 4,137 contracts less net short in Chicago wheat through the week that ended 5/16. The group was still at a 112,769 contract net short. Speculative funds were short covering in KC wheat, extending the groups net long by 9k contracts to 16.6k. Managed money was shown at a 4,838 contract net short in Minneapolis wheat as of 5/16. That was 3,480 contracts weaker through the week given net new buying. 

Chinese customs data showed 1.68 MMT of wheat imports for April. That was more than double the same volume last year and set their YTD total at 6.03 MMT – a 61% increase over last year’s pace. 

IGC released their May forecast, showing a 22/23 ending stock of 282.9 MMT shrinking to 271 MMT at the end of 23/24. That itself was down by 6 MMT on a 5 MMT production cut (mainly via U.S.). 

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.05, down 6 3/4 cents, currently down 4 1/4 cents

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.17, down 7 1/2 cents, currently down 4 1/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.44, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.24 1/4, down 32 3/4 cents, currently down 10 1/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.93 1/4, down 32 3/4 cents,

Jul 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.04, down 24 1/2 cents, currently down 5 3/4 cents