When you add El Niño to cool May weather... where do natural gas prices go?

(NGM26) (UNG) (BOIL) (KOLD) 

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“When you add El Niño to cool May weather...  where do natural gas prices go???”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

Edited by Scott Mathews

• Evening Report - May 4, 2026

I was bearish on natural gas in the $3.20-$3.30 area during the height of the Iran-US war a few weeks ago. Why? The knee-jerk reaction of higher crude oil prices has nothing to do with natural gas when our stocks are above the 5-year average. Also, a mild spring has been bearish. However, according to the CFTC “Commitments of Traders” report, there are more short positions than longs among the “managed money” speculators in the market. Also, some short-term US cold weather can have some impact.  At times, has been known to increase demand (only 50% of the cold cases).

In two of four cases, June natural gas prices fell in May when temperatures were cooler than normal. In two cases, they rallied

Source: A.I. generated map and table above (table below, as well) via data from EIA and NOAA  

Next week's temperature forecast indicates 10 to 20 degrees below normal in parts of the Midwest and East, which may be an excuse for speculators to cause a natural gas rally. However, it does not change the overall picture of ample supplies.

Map Source: Storm Vista

However, as we get into summer, notice how, historically, El Niño correlates with lower natural gas prices.

So how does one trade the natural gas ETF (UNG, KOLD, or BOIL)? That is where we come in. Sign up for a free trial to WeatherWealth and take advantage of our combined 75+ years of experience in the commodity markets.  (for a link to our free trial offer, SCROLL UP to the beginning of this article)

Remember when trading commodities, always use risk management, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, and consider using spreads to isolate the seasonal component of a particular market move. 

Thanks for your interest in Commodity Weather Intelligence !!!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.