The May hog contract expired at $76.62, and a $7.47 discount to the June. That is not uncommon for the hog market, though last year’s May rolled off at just a 75c discount. The CME Lean Hog Index was $75.40 on 5/10, up by 33 cents. The active futures market closed mixed with 2 to 22 cent gains and 12 to 30 cent losses. June futures were 32 cents higher for the week, but saw a new contract low on Tuesday. The USDA National Average Base Hog price was $74.36 on Friday afternoon, down by $2.59.
The CoT report showed lean hog spec traders were 10,847 contracts more net short in lean hogs after the week that ended 5/9. That left the group at 17,670 contracts net short.
The monthly WASDE data estimated Q3 pork output 15m lbs higher for a 21m lb increase for the full year. The standing estimate is 27.381b lbs for 2023. USDA’s initial 2024 estimate was 27.350 billion lbs, a 31 million loss if realized.
Pork cutout futures ended mixed as well, +/- 60 cents. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was 19 cents higher for the PM update, at $83.41. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.375m head through Saturday. That is 72k head below last week but is up 12k head from the same week last year. The year-to-date running total was at 46.970 million head, up 1.5% from last year’s pace.
Jun 23 Hogs closed at $84.100, up $0.225,
Jul 23 Hogs closed at $85.325, up $0.200
Jun 23 Pork Cutout closed at $88.150, up $0.075,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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