Wheats Off Initial Spike Highs

KC wheat futures surged 50 cents after the report showed only a 514 mbu production. Currently KC is still up by 30-40 cents. The other nearby wheat markets are up by double digits as well with 12 to 20 cent gains. The old crop cash price was a nickel weaker to $8.85, while the new crop price was listed at $8. 

The May WASDE report showed no changes for the old crop domestic balance sheet. For new crop, production was set at 1.659 bbu. By class, NASS had just 514 mbu for HRW compared to the expected range of 492 to 680, SRW was set at 405 mbu with 210 mbu for white winter. The demand side of the equation has wheat feed and residual growing 15 mbu yr/yr while exports shrink by 50 to 725. New crop stocks are figured at 42 mbu tighter at 556 million bushels. 

The global wheat carryout was 1.23 MMT looser for old crop, and about 1 MMT above the trade average guess. New crop’s initial outlook was 789.8 MMT of output, up about 1 MMT yr/yr. Ukrainian output is projected to drop from 21 MMT to 16.5 MMT in 23/24. Global ending stocks were figured at 264.3 MMT, a 2 MMT tighter yr/yr comparison but looser than the average trade guess of 260 MMT. 

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.41 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents,

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.53 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $5.80 1/8, up 14 1/8 cents,

Jul 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.79 1/2, up 38 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.48 3/8, up 38 1/8 cents,

Jul 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $8.51 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents,