Corn Fading into Report Day

Corn is trading fractionally to a penny weaker ahead of this morning’s USDA supply/demand updates. Corn ended Monday near the day’s highs with 5 1/2 to 10 3/4 cent gains. Old crop futures led the way with a double digit gain for both May and July. July futures remain a 23 1/2 cent discount to the May.  Preliminary open interest dropped 9,500 contracts on Monday, short covering in May futures ahead of the USDA reports and some net new buying in July.

USDA’s Crop Progress data showed the 23/24 corn crop was 3% planted as of 4/9. That was up 1% point through the week and is 1% point ahead of average. Texas was 61% planted vs. their 58% average pace. Sorghum was 13% planted as of Sunday, with TX 48% done. The 5-yr average pace would be 15% finished nationally and with 52% of TX milo planted. 

Weekly Export Inspections for corn totaled 805k MT during the week that ended 4/6. That was down from 1.1 MMT last week and was under the 1.5 MMTs for the same week last year. Accumulated corn shipments were marked at 20.17 MMT as of 4/6, compared to 32.06 MMT last year. 

The average trade estimate for today’s WASDE report has corn ending stocks down 19.7 mbu from last month at 1.322 bbu  (DJ survey average is 1.316). Most assume an increase in feed & residual use, based on March 31 Grain Stocks. The trade is also expecting USDA to trim back Argentina’s corn crop by another 3 MMT to 29.2. 

May 23 Corn  closed at $6.54, up 10 1/2 cents, currently down 1 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.58 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 Corn  closed at $6.30 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents, currently down 1 cent

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $5.62 3/4, up 6 cents, currently down 1 cent