Wheats Dropping Another Double Digits

The midweek wheat market is currently 10 to 15 cents lower after a mostly one directional overnight. Wheats extended the downside again on Tuesday by another 1-2% across the winter wheat markets. MGE wheat futures were down 5 3/4 to 6 1/2 cents on Tuesday. 

CFTC provided positions data as of the 3/14 settlement this afternoon. They showed SRW spec traders had reduced their net short by 5.4k contracts that week via net new buying. The funds were still 95k contracts net short. The KC wheat specs were extending their net short by 2.3k contracts through the week, to 12,732 as of 3/14. Managed money firms were 4,447 contracts net short in spring wheat, which was a 1,418 contract stronger net short through the week. 

Ukraine’s Farm Ministry forecasts a 9 MMT lighter grain harvest of 44.3 MMT for 2023. Of that, 16.6 MMT is forecasted to be wheat production. 

Russian grain production is forecasted 19% lower for 23/24, with 82.6 MMT of wheat output – per UkrAgroConsult. 

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.83 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents, currently down 15 cents

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.92 1/2, down 16 cents, currently down 14 1/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.31 ¼ on Tuesday, down 17 1/2 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.20 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents, currently down 14 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.82 ¾ on Tuesday, down 9 3/8 cents

May 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.45 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents, currently down 12 1/2 cents