Red Start for Soy Trade

Soy futures are trading red across the markets. Beans are 5 to 10 cents lower, meal is down $3.50 to $4.50/ton, and soy oil is 3-11 points weaker. The nearby soy market ended the Tuesday session 13 to 19 cents lower. May beans printed a wide 32 cent range on the day, but closed near the low. Meal futures faded back from their midday gains and closed Tuesday $0.70 to $2.10/ton in the red across the front months. Soy oil prices were 2.5% to 3% weaker at the bell. 

Preliminary open interest rose 3,386 contracts on Tuesday, net new selling concentrated in the November delivery month.  Soy oil saw net new selling across the board, rising 3,065 contracts for the day. 

The latest CoT release showed soybean spec traders were 127,661 contracts net long in soybeans as of 3/14. That was a weekly drop of 29.7k contracts via long liquidation. The commercial soybean traders added new longs for the week, which reduced the group’s net short by 23k contracts to 196.7k. Managed money was also confirmed selling the products. For soymeal, long liquidation reduced their net long by 21k contracts to 134k. For soy oil it was net new selling, and flipped the managed money group net short by 1,189 contracts. 

Brazil’s Agroconsult estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 155 MMT, from their prior 153 estimate. They see Brazil shipping 96 MMT during the season, compared to USDA’s standing 92.7 MMT forecast. 

USDA’s Ag Attaché figures the 23/24 Chinese soybean imports will reach 97.5 MMT, a 1 MMT increase yr/yr. Their crush is also anticipated to increase by 1 MMT to 95 MMT. The Attaché estimates Indonesia’s 23/24 palm oil production at 46 MMT, a 3% increase yr/yr.

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.67, down 19 cents, currently down 5 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.30 3/8 on Tuesday, down 18 3/8 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.48 1/2, down 18 1/4 cents, currently down 7 cents

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.96, down 13 cents, currently down 9 cents