Cocoa Prices Close Lower on Risk Off for Dollar Assets

May ICE NY cocoa (CCK23) on Monday closed down -51 (-1.89%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK23) closed down -38 (-1.83%).

Cocoa prices Monday tumbled to 1-month lows and closed moderately lower.  The turmoil in the U.S. banking sector has sparked a risk-off for dollar assets, sparking long liquidation in cocoa futures.  London cocoa was also under pressure from a rally in the British pound (^GBPUSD) Monday to a 1-month high.  The stronger pound undercuts cocoa priced in sterling.  

A bearish factor for London cocoa is an increase in European cocoa supplies after ICE monitored EU cocoa inventories n Monday rose to a 3-month high of 129,640 MT.  

A supportive factor for cocoa is reduced cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast.  Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent a cumulative 1.73 MMT MT of cocoa to Ivory Coast ports for the 2022/23 marketing year from October 1 through March 12, down -3.4% y/y.  The Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer in the world.

Earlier this month, NY cocoa rose to a 2-year high, and London cocoa posted a 3-1/4 month high after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasted global 2022/23 cocoa stockpiles would fall -3.5% y/y to 1.653 MMT.  In addition, ICCO said, "the expectation of a supply deficit has been compounded with weather variations, especially in West Africa."  On the bearish side, the ICCO forecast 2022/23 global cocoa production would climb +4.1% y/y to 5.017 MMT, and global cocoa grindings would fall -0.6% y/y to 5.027 MMT.

A decline in cocoa exports from Nigeria is favorable for prices after the Cocoa Association of Nigeria reported last Monday that Nigeria's Jan cocoa exports fell -5.9% y/y to 43,405 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa bean producer.

Cocoa also has support from recent reports that some Ivory Coast cocoa exporters are close to defaulting on their contracts due to a lack of cocoa beans, with some shortage estimates as high as 150,000 tons.  According to Reuters, with more cocoa grinding being done locally in the Ivory Coast, not enough cocoa beans are available to satisfy exporters' contracts.  

Concern about the quality of some West African cocoa crops has limited any declines in cocoa prices.  Cocoa farmers continue to struggle with the lack of fertilizer and pesticides as the war in Ukraine has limited Russian exports of potash and other fertilizers worldwide.

On the bearish side, Ivory Coast's cocoa regulator said February 22 that it would restrict some multinational traders from additional cocoa bean purchases for exports.  Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao, the Ivory Coast's cocoa regulator, said it blocked Barry Callebaut and Cargill from buying extra cocoa beans after both companies reached the amounts stipulated in their current contracts.  

Global cocoa demand is tepid and is a negative factor for cocoa prices.  On January 19, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q4 North American cocoa grindings fell -8.1% y/y to 107,130 MT.  Also, the European Cocoa Association reported on January 19 that European Q4 cocoa grindings fell -1.7% y/y to 359,577 MT.  On January 18, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Asia Q4 cocoa grindings fell -0.2% y/y to 230,806 MT.  

The quarterly report from the ICCO on December 1 was bullish for cocoa prices after ICCO said global 2021/22 cocoa production fell -8.0% y/y to 4.823 MMT as unfavorable weather and disease hampered cocoa yields.  ICCO also revised its 2021/22 global cocoa production figure downward by -419,000 MT from September.  ICCO also raised the 2021/22 global cocoa deficit to -306,000 MT from a Sep forecast of -230,000 MT.  In 2020/21, global cocoa production rose to a record 5.242 MMT, and the global cocoa market was in a surplus of +209,000 MT.

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