Spring Wheat Bouncing so far

Ahead of the Export Sales report, the wheat market is mixed as the winter wheats are fractionally to 4 cents lower, while spring wheat is up 3 to 7 cents. Front month Chicago wheat futures closed 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday. KC Wheat prices were mixed with a penny gain in May but a 5 1/2 cent loss in the Dec. Minneapolis wheat futures settled 10 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents lower on Wednesday. 

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales data, analysts estimate between 150k MT to 500k MT of wheat was sold during the week that ended 3/2. New crop wheat bookings are estimated below 100k MT. Monthly wheat exports were confirmed at 1.777 MMT for January. That was a 3% increase from January 2022, but the YTD 14.227 MMT (522.7 mbu) trails last year’s 14.697 MMT pace. 

USDA made no changes to wheat’s domestic balance sheet. Globally, they raised production by 5.14 MMT with 1 for Australia (to 39 MMT), 1 to India (to 104), and 2.4 MMT to Kazakhstan (16.4). Wheat stocks fell by 2 MMT to 267.2 MMT as USDA back adjusted carry-in and global domestic use was higher. 

Russia’s IFX reported 40 MMT of grain exports for the 22/23 MYTD. Their full year forecast remains 55 - 60 MMT for all grain. 

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.74 1/2, down 8 cents, currently UNCH

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.87 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.32 5/8, down 10 1/2 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.00 1/4, up 1 cent, currently down 2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.64 3/4, up 1 cent,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.38 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents, currently up 4 3/4 cents