Mostly Weaker Soy Market for Day Session

Coming out of the weekend, soy prices are red into the new week so far. Beans are trading 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents lower as soy oil is down 80. Meal is trading $0.80 to $1.50 higher as the outlier. There were zero deliveries against March meal over the weekend. There were 37 put out against BO, with ADM stopping 17 for the house account. There were 24 contracts put out against March soybeans, stopped by Bunge and a Marex client. Soybean prices ended Friday with 4 3/4 to 10 3/4 cent gains. Ultimately May went into the weekend on a net 1/2 cent loss Friday to Friday. Soymeal led the way higher on Friday with $8.10 to $9/ton gains. For May that flipped the contract to a net $1.30/ton gain on the week. Soybean oil futures ended the day 63 to 78 points in the red. USDA showed the cash average B100 price was $4.70/gal in MN this week, down by 8 cents. 

Ahead of the monthly USDA supply/demand report, analysts are looking for USDA to cut the Argentina soybean production estimate 4.4 MMT to 36.7 MMT on average. The full range of estimates going in is from -1 MMT to -9 MMT. For Brazil, the trade is expecting a 100k MT trim on average, but individual respondents carry a +/- 2MMT range. 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasted Argentina’s soy crop at 33.5 MMT, even with their prior figure. USDA’s Ag Attache has Brazil’s soybean output at 153 MMT, steady with USDA’s official forecast. They do have slightly higher exports and slightly lower putting Brazil’s carryout @ 3.221 MMT vs. the official 2.855 MMT forecast. Agroconsult expects Brazil’s soybean crop to total 153 MMT, steady with their prior assumption. Datagro has 150.81 MMT penciled in for soybean output. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.30 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents, currently down 6 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.79 3/8, up 9 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.18 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents, currently down 7 1/2 cents

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.06, up 8 cents, currently down 7 1/2 cents