Intel Reports Earnings Later Today, but Thanks to Elon Musk’s Terafab Project, Its Results Might Not Even Matter

Tesla’s (TSLA) first-quarter 2026 earnings report, released after the close on April 22, delivered a beat on both revenue and earnings per share, but the most consequential revelation for the broader market may have been Elon Musk’s confirmation that Tesla and SpaceX will use Intel’s (INTC) next-generation 14A chip manufacturing process for the ambitious Terafab semiconductor complex in Austin, Texas. This announcement sent Intel shares up over 2% in Thursday morning trading. 

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan had previously warned that the foundry business could be shut down entirely if it failed to attract outside clients, making the Tesla partnership a potential inflection point for the company’s survival strategy.

The Terafab project represents Musk’s vision for a massive AI and semiconductor campus that would serve Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, producing chips for autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and space-oriented data centers. Musk stated that by the time Terafab reaches scale, Intel’s 14A process should be sufficiently mature, describing it as a state-of-the-art technology and expressing confidence in Intel’s leadership team. The facility could eventually generate one terawatt of computing capacity annually, though Bernstein analysts estimate achieving such scale would require capital expenditures ranging from $5 trillion to $13 trillion, raising substantial questions about financing and timeline.

For Intel, the deal is symbolically and strategically transformative even if near-term financial impact remains limited, since the 14A process is not expected to launch until 2028. 

Intel’s immediate financial picture, however, remains challenging heading into its own Q1 earnings report scheduled for Thursday afternoon. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of just $0.02, a dramatic decline from $0.13 in the year-ago quarter, with revenue projected at approximately $12.4 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year contraction. The foundry division is anticipated to post a $2.4 billion operating loss, while the client computing segment faces headwinds from a global memory shortage expected to reduce sales by roughly 7% compared to last year. Intel’s data center processor market share has collapsed from 71% in 2021 to just 7% as Nvidia has come to dominate the AI infrastructure landscape.

Despite these near-term headwinds, Intel’s stock has been one of the market’s most remarkable performers, surging 225% over the past 12 months and 81.4% year-to-date, recently touching an all-time high of $70.32. 

The Tesla earnings call itself revealed that the automaker raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to over $25 billion from an initial $20 billion, with much of the increase directed toward AI infrastructure, robotics, and in-house chip manufacturing. Tesla’s Q1 results showed revenue of $22.39 billion, up 16% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.41 beating the $0.34 consensus, and free cash flow of $1.44 billion surprising analysts who had expected negative cash generation. While Tesla shares initially rose on the earnings beat, they subsequently declined as investors digested the massive capex commitment and Musk’s warning of negative free cash flow for the remainder of the year. The divergent after-hours reactions — Tesla falling and Intel rising — underscore that the Terafab announcement was arguably more meaningful for Intel’s long-term narrative than for Tesla’s near-term stock performance, positioning Intel as potentially the biggest winner from Tesla’s quarterly report.

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