Beans Gaining Double Digits

Soybean futures are back up through midday with gains of 8 to 17 cents. The new crop soy/corn ratio is back to 2.415 after a 2.327 average ratio through February. Soymeal futures are trading lower in the in-delivery March contract, but $3 to $3.20 higher in the other nearbys. Soy oil is working 1.2% higher so far past the March contract. 

USDA’s Ag Attache has Brazil’s soybean output at 153 MMT, steady with USDA’s official forecast. They do have slightly higher exports and slightly lower crush for the balance sheet, ultimately leading Brazil’s carryout to 3.221 MMT relative to the official 2.855 MMT forecast. Agroconsult expects Brazil’s soybean crop to total 153 MMT, steady with their prior assumption. Datagro has 150.81 MMT penciled in for soybean output. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales data showed 360,669 MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 2/23, which was a MY low. The week’s exports were 881k MT for a season total to 41.6 MMT. The weekly report had 134k MT of new crop sales, which set the new crop book at 1.308 MMT. Last year had 6.752 MMT on the books for new crop as of the 26th week. 

For the products, USDA’s FAS showed 172,355 MT of old crop meal was sold and 40.5k MT for new crop. That was more than double last week, but was about 15k MT below the 5-week average. Soymeal exports were shown at 193k MT for the week, bringing the season’s total to 4.847 MMT. For the oil, FAS showed 1,179 MT were sold for an accumulated commitment of 52,042 MT through 2/23. 

USDA’s NASS reported 191.128 mbu of soybeans were processed in January. That was just above the highest trade estimate going in, was a 2% boost from December’s crush, but was still down 1.6% from Jan last year. Crush YTD is 41.8% of the Feb WASDE’s full year forecasted total. Soymeal output was reported at 4.255m tons for the month, with 2.252b lbs of crude soy oil produced. Soybean oil stocks were 2.356b lbs, slightly below the trade average guess. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $15.21 1/4, up 17 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.69 1/8, up 14 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $15.08 1/4, up 14 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  are at $14.97 1/2, up 13 cents,