Midday Gains in Friday Wheat Market

Wheat futures are mostly higher through midday. Chicago SRW is up by 1 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents so far. HRW is trading with 5 3/4 to 8 1/4 cent gains so far. Spring wheat futures in MPLS are fractionally mixed to 2 cents in the black so far. 

Private estimates from Ukraine have the 23/24 grain output at 64.8 MMT, compared to 72.7 MMT in 22/23. That includes a 17.4 MMT wheat crop, with a 14 MMT forecasted wheat export program. 

USDA’s ERS released their 10-yr projections for wheat S&Ds. They see annual exports gradually working higher towards 950 mbu, with stocks working gradually higher to 755 mbu by 2032/33. For 23/24, they have acreage at 47.5m, including the 36.95m winter wheat acres, producing 1.92 bbu. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had 209,847 MT of wheat bookings from the week that ended 2/9. HRS and white wheat had the most activity with 35% of the sales each, followed by SRW with 20% and HRW with 10%. Accumulated export shipments were 12.96 MMT, or 476.3 mbu as 61% of the WASDE forecast. Total commitments were at 78% of the forecast as of 2/9. 

The IGC released their Feb world wheat figures, with a slightly higher trade and slightly looser carryout. Trade was upped by 2.5 MMT, mainly to Russia, and stocks were 1.1 MMT looser mainly in the EU, to 281.7 MMT. 

Japan booked 76,203 MT of wheat via a regular tender from the U.S., Canada, and Australia. 

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.68 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.78 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.09 5/8, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $9.05 1/2, up 7 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.65 1/2, up 6 3/8 cents,

Mar 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.31 1/4, up 1 cent,