The last trade day of the week has corn fractionally to 1 1/2 cents higher through midday. The markets will be closed on Monday in recognition of President’s Day. USDA reported the week’s average cash ethanol prices from $1.98 to $2.18 regionally, but mostly 1 to 6 cents/gal higher. DDGS were quoted from $230-$240/ton in WI/MI/IN to $260-$300/ton in SD/NE/IA/MO. Regional DDGS were mostly lower from $5 to $20/ton for the week. Corn oil cash markets ranged from 53 – 68 cents/lb, but were mostly 3 to 11 cents lower on the week.
USDA reported a 120.8k MT sale for old crop corn to unknown this morning.
The BAGE reported 100% of Argentina’s 22/23 corn crop was planted on 7.1m HA, including both early and late planted corn crops.
Private estimates from Ukraine estimate the 23/24 grain output at 64.8 MMT, compared to 72.7 MMT in 22/23. That includes a 21.1 MMT corn crop, with a 20 MMT forecasted corn export program.
USDA’s ERS forecasts SAF from ethanol and E-15 sales will subdue an underlying downtrend in domestic gasoline consumption, for a 10-yr outlook of mostly consistent 5.3 – 5.37 bbu corn demand. For 2023, their baseline projection was 92m corn acres and a 181.5 bpa yield with stocks growing to 1.712 bbu and the cash average price fading to $5.70/bu. By the end of the decade, stocks were presumed to be comfortable near 16 bbu as trend-line yields improve to 199.5 bpa, cash prices get steady at $4.30/bu in the long run.
The IGC cut their outlook for global corn production from 1.161 to 1.153 billion metric tonnes. including a 2.5 MMT cut to Argentina (to 53.5 MMT) and a 5 MMT cut to the U.S. That mainly came out of use as stocks were actually 300k MT looser to 254.6 MMT.
USDA Weekly Export Sales data showed 1.024 MMT of old crop and 100k MT of new crop corn was sold during the week that ended 2/9. The weekly report had cumulative commitments at 1.095 bbu, compared to 1.832 bbu last season, and to the 1.925 bbu full year export forecast.
Mar 23 Corn is at $6.77, up 1 cent,
Nearby Cash is at $6.79 5/8, up 1 1/8 cents,
May 23 Corn is at $6.76 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
Jul 23 Corn is at $6.65, up 1 cent,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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