Turnaround Tuesday for Soy Futures

So far, the soy market is working back lower with 6 to 9 cent losses for beans, $3/ton losses in meal, and 30 point weaker BO. The Monday soy trade rallied to start the week. Meal led the way with 2.25% to 3.2% gains and new contract highs. Soybean oil prices also traded up by 1% to 1.2% in the front months for Monday. Those product value gains left the soybean market 1.2% to 1.7% higher with 25 cent gains in the March and May contracts.  Preliminary open interest data showed short covering in nearby March, but net new buying of 4,693 contracts overall. November soybeans’ rally pushed the new crop soy/corn ratio back to 2.319. 

Estimates ahead of the monthly USDA Fats and Oils report show traders expect between 187 mbu and 188.6 mbu of soybeans were processed in December. The average of estimates is to see 188 mbu reported Wednesday,  which would be down from November’s 189.4 mbu crush and Dec ‘21’s all time record of 198.2 million. Trade ideas for soy oil stocks are running about 2.25 billion pounds. 

USDA reported 1.855 MMT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 1/26. That was a 16.6k MT increase from last week and was up by 437k MT from the same week last year. China was the top destination with 76% of the total. The weekly update had the season’s accumulated export at 35.989 MMT through 1/26 – trailing last year by just 461,035 MT. 

Brazilian FOB soybean export prices at Paranagua have reached a 13 month low. Harvest is lagging last year’s drought accelerated pace, but supplies are still reaching export position. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.35 1/4, up 25 3/4 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.97 3/8 on Monday, up 25 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.29 1/2, up 25 cents, currently down 8 cents

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.19 1/2, up 23 1/2 cents, currently down 9 1/4 cents