Here's What to Expect From CF Industries' Next Earnings Report

Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is one of the largest manufacturers and distributors of nitrogenous fertilizer and other nitrogen products globally. Valued at a market cap of $19.2 billion, the company operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. CF is expected to release its Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, May 6, after the market closes.

Ahead of the event, analysts expect the company’s EPS to be $2.22 on a diluted basis, up 20% from $1.85 in the year-ago quarter. The company has exceeded Wall Street’s EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters.

For fiscal 2026, analysts project the company’s EPS to be $9.95, up 6.2% from $9.37 in fiscal 2025. However, its EPS is expected to decline by 19.7% year over year (YoY) to $7.99 in fiscal 2027.

CF stock has surged 58.5% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 33.5% rise and the State Street Basic Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLB) 28.3% rise during the same time frame.

On Apr. 16, CF stock rose 3.2% amid concerns that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt global fertilizer supplies. Fertilizer costs have gone up by nearly 50% in some markets, ever since the start of the Iran war. Due to disruptions in the supply chain, farmers and corporations are facing a lack of supply in ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers, or higher prices, potentially leading to a surge in food prices for consumers and exacerbating food insecurity around the world, according to analysts. 

Analysts are skeptical about CF, with the stock having a “Hold” rating overall. Among the 19 analysts covering the stock, three are recommending a “Strong Buy,” 13 suggest a “Hold,” one recommends a “Moderate Sell,” and two suggest a “Strong Buy.” CF’s average analyst price target is $113.89, indicating an upside of 1.6% from the current levels.