Is El Niño driving the coffee market?

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“Is El Niño driving the coffee market?”

• April 16, 2026

Image Source - royalty-free photo by Seyede Foroogh, courtesy of pexels.com

by Jim Roemer

• Meteorologist

• Commodity Trading Advisor

• Principal, Best Weather Inc.

• Co-Founder, Climate Predict LLC

• Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

Scott Mathews, Editor-in-Chief

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The short answer regarding El Niño is: “No!  El Niño has not officially formed yet and will not be a factor for months.”

The coffee market did not rally because of dry weather in northern Brazil. In fact, drier weather is beneficial for the upcoming harvest there. They do not want rain, it is way too late to help the crop.

More than 6 months ago, I put out a very bearish (-8) Weather Spider score and coffee prices collapsed from $3.50 to $2.80 a few weeks ago. This was because of the weakening La Niña event I predicted last fall and that usually “excellent summer (Brazil) weather”.

Image Source: Best Weather Newsletter (royalty-free photo of coffee beans by pexels.com)

Notice my prediction last October of normal-to-above-normal rainfall for Brazil’s coffee from November-January greatly helping out this next year’s crop and easing most of previous drought.

Map Source: Climate Predict, LLC (a Best Weather company)

My Weather Spider was scaled back a couple of weeks ago from very bearish to bearish due to the factors I mention, below.
 

So, why did prices rally sharply earlier this week? For one thing, the Strait of Hormuz being shut down restricted exports from Southeast Asia in mainly the cheaper variety Robusta coffee. This, plus the stronger Brazilian Real the market to rally. Remember the big crop does not hit the market till later in May and June.

However, it is way too early to talk about El Niño and if there will be crop problems to global coffee this year. Currently we are in an El Niño neutral phase with generally good global weather. This trend should weaken the wet weather aggravation that the world’s #2 coffee producer (Colombia) has recently.

Jim Roemer
Weather Wealth Newsletter

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Remember, when trading commodities, always apply risk management, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, and consider using spreads to isolate the seasonal component of a particular market move.

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short-term and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and energy markets, he holds a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.