Friday Losses for Soy Markets

The Friday round of trading ended with beans down by 8 1/4 to 12 1/2 cents across the front month contracts.  March ended the week down by 21 1/4 cents. Soymeal saw new contract highs earlier this week, but closed with another $4.60 to $7.50 loss on Friday. That helped flip the week red for March meal as it closed $12.60 below last Friday. Soybean oil futures dropped 87 to 118 points on the day, closing out the week 109 points lower for the March contract. 

CFTC’s weekly data release showed soybean spec traders were 36,594 contracts more net long through the week that ended 1/17. The funds’ net new buying pushed their net long to a 39-wk high of 168,298 contracts. Commercial soybean hedgers added 29.6k new short hedges through the week, leaving them 198,857 contracts net short. Looking at soymeal, the CoT report showed managed money funds were 8,228 contracts more net long through the week to 150,939 contracts. Soybean oil spec traders were 54k contracts net long after a week of long liquidation reduced it by 606 contracts. 

The University of Illinois’ Farmdoc initially has the 23/24 soy crop gaining 500k acres to 88 million. The USDA October baseline projection was to see 500k fewer at 87 million. New crop soybean carryout was set as 212 mbu, near even with this year’s estimate and well below the USDA baseline projection. The key in getting there was a lower carry-in from old crop – set at 176 compared to USDA’s current 210 estimate. 

USDA announced a private export sale of 220k MT of old crop beans to unknown destinations this morning. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 986k MT of soybeans were sold through the week that ended 1/12. Estimates were looking for between 600k and 1.2 MMT. The report also had 362.5k MT of soymeal sales, which was above estimates, and 666 MT of soy oil sales for the week. For whole bean exports, USDA had 2.066 MMT shipped through the week that ended 1/12. That brought the accumulated bean export to 31.73 MMT, or 59% of USDA forecasts. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.06 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $14.70 3/8, down 8 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.01 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.93, down 10 3/4 cents,