Corn futures are sitting on 2 cent gains for old crop and fractional losses in new crop heading into USDA report day. Yesterday’s volume and OI data showed net rolling from Mar to May with 9.7k fewer March contracts in play and an increased May of 5.4k contracts. Overall corn contracts lost 1.1k contracts of OI. Feb options saw 5.2k new players yesterday with +3.1k in Mar – mainly calls. Old crop corn worked higher ahead of the USDA reports, while new crop sold off on Wednesday. By the close the board was only fractionally to 1 cent in the black. March corn stayed in a 6 1/4 cent range through Wednesday.
Weekly FAS Export Sales are expected to be between 300,000 MT and 1 MMT of old crop corn for the week that ended 1/05. New crop corn bookings are estimated below 75k MT.
EIA’s weekly data ethanol production report had 943k barrels of daily production through the week that ended 1/06. That was a 99k bpd increase from last week but is still down from two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks were drawn down an additional 644k barrels to 23.8 million.
China is extending their anti-dumping tariffs on DDGS from the U.S. for an additional 5 years. The tariff levels will remain intact, scaled up to as much as 66% dependent on volume.
Brazil’s AgRural reported 1st crop corn harvest at 2.3% finished through 1/05, compared to 3.1% at the same point last year. Agroconsult, a private firm in Brazil, estimated the as yet unplanted 2nd corn crop 7.1 MMT higher to 101.3 MMT for a total corn output of 130.9 MMT.
Going into the monthly USDA reports traders are looking for a slightly higher corn yield on average, from 172.3 to 172.5 bpa. Total US production is on average expected to be 6.4 mbu higher. Carryout is expected to grow 56.7 mbu according to the average of estimates to 1.314 bbu. Lower exports are estimated to be the culprit. Global corn stocks are expected to drop by 700k MT as the increase to the U.S. carryout is expected to be offset by Argentina production cuts.
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.56, up 1 cent, currently up 2 cents
Nearby Cash was $6.61 7/8 on Wednesday, up 1 cent,
May 23 Corn closed at $6.55 1/4, up 3/4 cent, currently up 1 3/4 cents
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.48 1/2, up 1/2 cent, currently up 3/4 cent
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
