Soybean oil futures are trading 17 to 21 points weaker so far in the front months as the beans and meal firm up. Soybean prices are working 2 to 9 1/2 cents higher so far after seeing $15 in the nearbys briefly. Soymeal futures are up by $3.70 to $5.50/ton at midday.
Going into the January USDA reports the trade is looking to see between a 49.9 and 50.8 bpa final soy yield. The average of all estimates is for a 0.1 bpa increase to 50.3. Domestic soybean carryout is anticipated to be 13 mbu higher to 233 mbu. Global bean ending stocks are expected to be reported at 101.5 MMT on average – a 1.2 MMT reduction from December’s figure.Â
Soil moisture in Brazil’s Mato Grosso and MGDS has been improving, with USDA’s Crop Explorer maps showing insufficient areas shrinking and pockets of excessive soil moisture expanding. Southern Brazil remains dry. Argentina’s soil moisture has also been improving but from such detrimental levels and the vast majority of the country is still 0% to 20% insufficient to limited.Â
Brazil’s Safras and Mercado reported 43.7MMT, or ~36.5% of the expected output, of soybeans were sold by farmers through 1/06, compared to the average 41%. USDA’s Ag Attache raised their estimate for Brazil’s soybean output to 153 MMT.Â
Jan 23 Soybeans  are at $15.16, up 6 cents,
Nearby Cash  is at $14.63 1/8, up 9 3/4 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $14.94 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents,
May 23 Soybeans  are at $14.97 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here
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