Sugar Prices Slide as Supply Outlook Improves

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Friday closed down -0.38 (-1.96%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed down -7.50 (-1.40%).

Sugar prices Friday closed moderately lower, with NY sugar posting a 2-month low and London sugar posting a 1-1/4 month low.  An improved sugar supply outlook weighed on prices.  On Tuesday, the India Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reported that India's 2022/23 sugar production from Oct-Dec rose +3.7% y/y to 12.1 MMT.  India is the world's second-largest sugar exporter.  Also, Conab hiked its Brazil 2022/23 sugar production estimate last Tuesday to 36.4 MMT from an Aug estimate of 33.9 MMT.

Higher sugar output in India is bearish for prices.  On Oct 24, the ISMA forecasted that India's 2022/23 sugar production (Oct 1-Sep 30) would climb +2% y/y to 36.5 MMT as Indian farmers boosted their planted cane acreage by +5.4% y/y to 5.6 mln hectares.  In 2021/22, India's sugar production rose +2.9% y/y to 35.8 MMT.  Also, robust sugar exports from India are bearish for prices after India 2021/22 sugar exports jumped +57% y/y to a record 11 MMT.

In a bullish factor, StoneX Financial said Dec 14 that due to a delay in Thailand's sugar harvest, projections for Thai sugar exports of 1 MMT to 2 MMT this quarter "will not materialize."  Also, India's Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said that it sees India's sugar mills diverting 4.5 MMT to 5.0 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2022/23.

Reduced sugar production in Europe is another supportive factor for prices, as that may force European sugar and food manufacturers to import sugar, leading to tighter global supplies.  The European Association of Sugar Manufacturers on Dec 8 forecasted that EU 2022/23 sugar output would fall -7% y/y to 15.5 MMT.

In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Nov 22 projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT.  Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.
 

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