Beans ended the day 8-10 cents off their highs, but still 1 3/4 to 2 1/2 cents in the black. Thursday’s gains were led by soy oil which closed 0.9% to 2.1% higher. Meal futures pulled back on Thursday with $2.20 to $3.20/ton losses. The crush margins remain strong, but since the EPA proposal they have been rebalancing.
Our formulas suggest the board crush margin was $3.47 on 11/29 with $9/bu oil value and $9/bu meal value – less the beans. The current ratio is near $3/bu, with $7.88/bu oil value and $10.21/bu meal value. Historical margins on the board haven’t been above $2/bu on our formula, with the all time highs at $4 in late October. The CME Synthetic Soy Crush value is $2.45/bu for Jan and $1.70/bu for new crop.
Going into the weekly Export Sales report, analysts expect between 500,000 and 900,000 MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 12/22. New crop bookings are expected to be below 50k MT. For meal, analysts anticipate USDA will show between 125k and 300k MT of sales. BO bookings are expected to be below 30k MT.
Egypt reportedly purchased 30k MT of soy oil and 12k MT of sunflower oil via tender.
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $15.08 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $14.83, up 1 7/8 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.16 1/4, up 2 cents,
May 23 Soybeans closed at $15.23 1/4, up 2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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