Beans Trading Fractionally Mixed

Overnight soybeans was mostly lower, but prices have came back to break even across the front months – currently fractionally mixed. Products are $3/ton higher and 90 cents/lb lower so far. The bean futures ended mixed yesterday, within 3 cents of UNCH across the front months. That tightened the carry Jan-Jul by 3 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents. Meal futures resumed their upward movement, recovering another $6.30 to $7.80 after Monday’s drop. BO futures were weaker on Wednesday, giving back 53 to 57 points. 

CME Synthetic Soy Crush was higher again, back up to $2.29/bu on the board. It printed $2.80 on 10/31 before collapsing to $2 flat on 12/5. Analysts estimate that NOPA members processed 181.473 mbu of soybeans in November. If realized that would be down 1.6% mo/mo but still 1.1% above Nov ’21. The full range of estimates ahead of tomorrow’s data is between 180 flat and 183.12 mbu. BO stocks are expected to be 1.619b lbs. 

Pre-report estimates have US weekly soybean export sales bookings between 1.5 MMT and 2.1 MMT. Trade ideas for meal export sales run 150-350,000 MT, with zero to 5,000 MT of soy oil bookings expected. . 

The Rosario Board of Trade reported 2.98 MMT of soybeans had been sold from 11/28 to 12/12 (second soy dollar), for ~ $1.4b. The first ‘soy dollar’ regime saw 16.1 MMT, or ~ $8.1b. 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Board forecasts 2023 output at 48.1 MMT, from 46.5 MMT this season. Exports are expected to climb to 33.4 MMT from the 30.9 MMT shipped in 2022. 

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.82 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents, currently up 1/4 cent

Nearby Cash   was $14.58 5/8, up 2 1/8 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.85, up 1/2 cent, currently up 1/2 cent

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.88 1/4, down 1/2 cent, currently up 1/2 cent