Soybean futures closed nearly a dime off their highs on Friday, and ended the session fractionally mixed to 2 1/2 cents lower. Jan printed a 15 cent range on the day. Meal prices were stronger again on Friday, with the $2.40 to $6.20/ton gains leaving Jan up 16% for the week. BO futures slid some more on Friday making for a net 16% drop on the week. USDA left the average cash price UNCH at $14. USDA’s weekly Ethanol Report showed the B100 cash prices were 84 cents/gal lower in MN mostly near $5.90/gal.Â
Weekly CoT data had soybean spec traders at 99,454 contracts net long as of 12/6. That was a 2,650 contract lighter net long via more new sellers than new buyers during the week. Commercial soybean hedgers were closing positions during the week, and reduced their net short by 11k contracts to 133k. In soymeal, spec traders covered 7k shorts and added 16.5k new longs for a net long of 98,509 contracts. The funds fled from BO through the week with 34k closed longs (30% of the existing longs), and added 9k new shorts for a 62,584 contract net long at the 12/6 settle – an 8-wk low.Â
USDA left the domestic soybean balance sheet UNCH from November, leaving the supply at 4.634 bbu and the carryout at 220 mbu. For the products, meal was also UNCH from November on a 53.75m ton supply and 350k ton carryout. Soy oil got tighter carry-in stocks and an import reduction for a net 208m lb lighter supply. Exports and biofuel usage were each reduced 200m lbs but the domestic food use was 150 higher for a net 42m lb stocks increase.Â
Globally, soybean production was mostly UNCH after a 920k MT boost (mostly from EU). Exports were also little changed as Argentina’s 500k MT boost helped lift the total 240k MT to 169.4 MMT. Global bean carryout was 540k MT higher where the trade was expecting a 1.8 MTM boost on average.Â
Brazil’s CONAB trimmed their soybean production estimate slightly (~60k MT) from November to 153.48 MMT. Abiove estimates the soy crop at 153.5 MMT. Safras and Mercado reported ~24% of the expected 154.5 MMT soy crop was sold by Brazilian farmers.Â
Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.83 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash  was $14.59 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.88 1/4, down 2 cents,
May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.93 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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