So far into the Friday soy market, BO prices are down another triple digits. Beans and meal, however, are trading in the black with 3 to 6 cent/bu and 10c to $1.80/ton gains respectively. Soymeal futures bounced in the afternoon and ended the session with 0.7% to 0.9% gains. Beans and soybean oil futures on the other hand fell sharply and settled near their lows for the day. At the close BO prices were down by their 450 point limits on +6% losses. Dec oil closed 9.08% lower with no daily limit when contracts are in the delivery process. Soybeans fell 2.1% to 2.7% on the day, taking Jan back to the week’s open.
The steep decline in soy oil prices deterred delivery notices, with none issued overnight. The first 13 deliveries were made against December meal, internal to Marex customers.
Canadian Canola Prices participated in the sell-off on Thursday, dropping 3.6% on the day and giving back most of the week’s earlier gains.
NASS confirmed 196.64 mbu of soybeans were processed during October. That was above the average of pre-report estimates (195.9), was up 17.33% from September, and was just 0.8% below the all time record. Soybean oil stocks were 2.094b lbs. The trade was looking for 2.107b ahead of the report.
The EPA boosted required biofuel use to 20.82b gallons of renewable fuels for 2023, of which 5.82 billion would be advanced biofuels (mostly from soy oil). The prior requirement was 20.63b gallons, so the 2023 number is just a ~1% increase. ASA and other farm groups are disappointed by the minimal increases, as well as some loopholes in RIN creation.
Weekly Export Sales from the week that ended 11/24 were confirmed at 693,838 MT. Analysts were expecting to see at least 550k MT. China was the top buyer, with 110k MT previously announced. China was also the destination for over half (71%) of the week’s export shipments, which totaled 2.1 MMT to all destinations. The accumulated soybean export reached 19 MMT (700.5 mbu) through 11/24.
FAS data had soymeal sales at 185k MT, compared to 516k MT last week and 150 – 500k MT expected. Accumulated soymeal exports were 1.494 MMT through 11/24, trailing last year by 19.3%. For BO the weekly report showed 2,306 MT of net cancelations, compared to pre-report estimates of 0-20k MT. Soy oil exports were at 11,474 MT for the season through 11/24 – trailing last year by 78%.
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $14.29 3/4, down 39 3/4 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $14.07 1/8, down 39 1/8 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.36 3/4, down 38 3/4 cents, currently up 3 cents
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.44 1/2, down 38 1/4 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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