Double Digit Soybean Strength

Soy futures are up more than 1% at midday. Beans are gaining 11 1/2 to 20 1/4 cents so far through the front months with Jan up 1.4%. Meal prices are 1.4% to 1.6% in the black. Soy oil prices are leading the bullish charge. 

USDA reported a 110k MT soybean sale to unknown this morning. Weekly Inspections data had 2.022 MMT of soybean exports for the week that ended 11/24. That was down 403k MT from the week prior and was 237k MT smaller than the same week last year. USDA added 97.6k MT to recent reports, taking the season’s total to 19.248 MMT. That compares to 21.4 MMT through the same point last season. 

Indonesia maintained their 8:1 ratio for domestic palm oil to exports. The ratio, limiting exports, went into effect 11/1, and has been renewed for the foreseeable future. Biofuel sector protests began in Brazil after sitting president Bolsonaro vetoed a CNPE decision that would have allowed biodiesel produced “by any technological route of production” to be blended with traditional diesel. Brazil is still capped at a 10% biodiesel blend rate in Q1 of 2023 and expected to go to 15% later. 

BAGE reported 29.4% of Argentine soybeans were planted as of 11/23, trailing last year by nearly 20%. Argentina’s government announced a new soybean exchange rate (soy dollar) for export sales effective from 11/28 through 12/31. This is designed to stimulate more export business out of the country, driving tax collections and creating more competition for the US. 

Jan 23 Soybeans  are at $14.55 3/4, up 19 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.33, up 19 1/2 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $14.60 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $14.66 3/4, up 17 cents,