S&P Futures Climb on Hopes of Middle East Conflict Resolution, U.S. ADP Jobs Report and Retail Sales Data on Tap

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending up +0.51% this morning as oil prices fall and risk appetite improves on hopes for an imminent end to the conflict in the Middle East.

President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the U.S. plans to leave Iran within two to three weeks. Trump suggested that Iran could still strike a deal with the U.S. during that timeframe, but said an agreement with Tehran was not required for the war to conclude. On Tuesday night, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump would address the nation on Wednesday evening “to provide an important update on Iran.”

The price of WTI crude initially dropped more than -4% on Trump’s remarks, but later pared losses and was last down over -1% as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut and missile and drone attacks continued across the Gulf. Treasury yields fell across the curve as hopes for a swift end to the conflict eased concerns about elevated inflationary pressures fueled by higher-for-longer oil prices.

Investors are also awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the ADP employment report and retail sales figures.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Meta Platforms (META) climbing over +6% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +5%. Also, chip stocks surged, led by a more than +12% jump in Marvell Technology (MRVL) after Nvidia pledged to invest $2 billion in the company. In addition, airline stocks advanced amid a drop in oil prices, with United Airlines Holdings (UAL) surging over +8% and Alaska Air Group (ALK) gaining over +7%. On the bearish side, Constellation Energy (CEG) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the power provider gave soft FY26 adjusted EPS guidance and did not unveil any new data-center deals at a closely watched investor event.

A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 6.882 million in February, slightly weaker than expectations of 6.890 million. Also, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 91.8 in March, stronger than expectations of 87.8. In addition, the U.S. January S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.4% y/y. Finally, the U.S. March Chicago PMI fell to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 54.8.

“There do appear to be some early signs of stabilization in both consumer confidence and job openings after a clear fourth-quarter downtrend,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “While that doesn’t yet signal a meaningful rebound, it may suggest the consumer and labor backdrop are no longer deteriorating at the same pace.”

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Tuesday warned that the central bank should not dismiss the inflationary impact of a spike in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. “This oil shock comes at a time when inflation already has been too high for too long,” Schmid said. He noted that the Fed should be ready to address elevated inflation proactively so it does not become entrenched near 3% in the long run.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP private payrolls report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 41K, compared to the February figure of 63K.

U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate that retail sales will climb +0.5% m/m and core retail sales will rise +0.3% m/m in February, compared to the previous figures of -0.2% m/m and unchanged m/m, respectively.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be reported today. Economists expect the March ISM manufacturing index to be 52.3 and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI to be 52.3, compared to the previous month’s values of 52.4 and 51.6, respectively.

The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 2.0 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 6.9 million barrels.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governor Michael Barr and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), and Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) are scheduled to report their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.28%, down -0.83%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.04% this morning, starting April on an upbeat note after President Trump offered investors hope that the Middle East conflict could soon come to an end. Bank, travel, and technology stocks jumped on Wednesday. Energy was the only sector to fall amid a slide in oil prices. A survey released on Wednesday showed that Eurozone manufacturing growth accelerated to its strongest pace in nearly four years in March as supply chain disruptions inflated the headline figure, although underlying demand remained subdued and surging input costs stemming from the Middle East conflict threatened to derail the sector’s fragile recovery. Separately, data showed that the Eurozone’s unemployment rate ticked up in February. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields sank on Wednesday, following U.S. and Japanese peers as concerns about elevated energy prices fueling inflation and rate hikes eased. In other news, Germany’s leading economic research institutes more than halved their growth forecasts for this year and next and sharply raised their inflation projections as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy markets. In corporate news, Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO.LN) tumbled over -12% after saying it would postpone its FY25 results as it works to secure alternative banking arrangements.

Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

Eurozone’s March Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, stronger than expectations of 51.4.

Eurozone’s February Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, weaker than expectations of 6.1%.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.46%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +5.24%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict boosted sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. could end its military strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, and that Tehran would not need to reach a deal as a precondition for the conflict to wind down. Biotechnology, chip, and tourism stocks surged on Wednesday. A private-sector survey released on Wednesday showed that China’s manufacturing activity cooled from a five-year high in March, although it remained in expansion territory. Sub-indexes tracking demand and output expanded at a slower pace in March than a month earlier, while cost pressures intensified sharply, according to RatingDog. The RatingDog reading contrasted with an official gauge released on Tuesday. Separately, a private survey showed that China’s new home prices ticked up in March, reversing the prior month’s decline, supported by a seasonal rebound in demand across major cities. Meanwhile, China’s listed firms announced the highest number of share buybacks in nearly a year last month as the escalating Middle East conflict pressured stock prices. A total of 43 Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies pledged in March to buy back a combined 25.6 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) worth of shares, according to Bloomberg. In corporate news, Zhipu AI soared over +31% in Hong Kong after the company said its 2025 revenue more than doubled.

The Chinese March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8, weaker than expectations of 51.6.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today amid optimism that the Middle East conflict could be nearing a conclusion. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expected the U.S. to end the war with Iran within two to three weeks. Strong results from Japan’s Tankan business survey also lifted sentiment. Gains were broad-based on Wednesday, with financial, industrial, and chip stocks leading the rally. The benchmark index notched its largest daily percentage gain since April 2025. The Bank of Japan’s closely watched Tankan survey, released on Wednesday, showed that sentiment among large manufacturers improved in the first quarter, reaching its highest level since December 2021. The business sentiment index picked up for a fourth consecutive quarter, even as the Middle East conflict broke out. A BOJ official said at a briefing that strong demand for AI chips and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy offset the pressure from higher input costs and the Middle East conflict. However, the Tankan showed that companies expect overall prices to rise 2.6% over the coming year, well above the central bank’s 2% target and faster than the 2.4% pace projected in the previous survey. Private-sector data reinforced these inflationary concerns. A separate survey showed on Wednesday that Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to grow in March, but at a slower pace, partly as cost pressures hit a 19-month high amid the Middle East conflict. Economists said Japan’s Tankan survey could strengthen the case for the BOJ to hike rates this month. In corporate news, Recruit Holdings surged over +9% after the company announced plans to repurchase up to 350 billion yen worth of shares. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -45.04% to 26.43.

The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index stood at 17 in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of 16.

The Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index came in at 36 in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of 33.

The Japanese March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 51.6 from the preliminary reading of 51.4.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip and AI-infrastructure stocks extended their rebound in pre-market trading, with Sandisk (SNDK) rising over +3% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining nearly +2%.

Microsoft (MSFT) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after announcing plans to invest $5.5 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure in Singapore from 2025 through the end of 2029.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) advanced more than +1% in pre-market trading after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $115 price target.

Nike (NKE) tumbled over -10% in pre-market trading after the sportswear giant said revenue is projected to fall 2% to 4% in the current quarter and decline in the low single digits for the remainder of the calendar year.

RH (RH) plummeted more than -18% in pre-market trading after the home-furnishings company posted downbeat Q4 results and issued below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 1st

Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM), UniFirst (UNF), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), NovaGold Resources (NG), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Terra Innovatum Global (NKLR), Syntec Optics Holdings (OPTX), Franklin Covey Co. (FC), Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET).