Wheat Weakness Persists Overnight

Following the overnight trade the wheat market is down double digits in SRW, and fractionally lower in HRS so far this morning. The wheat futures market added more to the downside on Friday as CBT closed 3 to 4 3/4 cents in the red. KC HRW futures ended the day down by 3 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents across the front months. Spring wheat futures closed with a 2 1/4 to 3 1/4 cent loss on Friday. The weekly changes for Dec contracts were -1.3% in SRW, -0.98% in HRW and +0.6% in HRS. 

Weekly CFTC data showed CBT wheat specs were 46,780 contracts net short as of 11/15. That was a 3,878 contract stronger net short through the week, by more long liquidation. In HRW, the funds were reducing their net long by 3,152 contracts to 21,281. In MGE HRS wheat, managed money traders were 2,897 contracts less net long, to just 158 contracts, after a sharp long liquidation through the week (54% of existing spec longs were closed). 

China’s Customs reported wheat imports were 1.24 MMT in October, a 157% increase yr/yr. Through October of ’22, Customs tracked 7.87 MMT of wheat – a 2.6% lighter YTD volume than the same time in 2021. 

Argentina’s Economy Ministry estimates the wheat crop at 13.4 MMT for 22/23, a 39.4% drop from 21/22 – citing both the prolonged drought and frost conditions in the south. 

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.03 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents, currently down 12 cents

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.22, down 3 cents, currently down 11 1/2 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.37 ½ on Friday, down 3 5/8 cents,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.34 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents, currently down 4 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.93 ½ on Friday, down 21 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.51 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents