Sugar Prices Give Up Early Gains as Crude Falls

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Wednesday closed down -0.02 (-0.10%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed down -6.70 (-1.22%).

Sugar prices Wednesday erased an early rally and closed slightly lower.  A drop of more than -1% in crude oil prices Wednesday sparked long liquidation in sugar futures.  Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.  

NY sugar saw support Wednesday on reports that some Indian sugar mills are threatening to default on sugar contracts, possibly forcing traders to cover positions in the cash market, which would boost prices.

Sugar prices had carry-over support from last Thursday when Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the 2022/23 marketing year through October was down -3.1% y/y to 30.281 MMT.

Sugar prices also have support after India stated on Nov 5 announced that it would allow 6 MMT of sugar exports in the 2022/23 season.  According to Bloomberg, that is well below the 2021/22 quota of 11.2 MMT and below the 8 MT quota that the Indian government previously considered due to a larger-than-expected Indian sugar surplus.

In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) Tuesday projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT.  Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.

A negative factor for sugar was last Tuesday’s projection from Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s Center South 2023/24 sugar cane crushing will climb +3.4% y/y to 620.7 MMT.

Higher sugar output in India is bearish for prices.  On Oct 24, the Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasted that India's 2022/23 sugar production (Oct 1-Sep 30) would climb +2% y/y to 36.5 MMT as Indian farmers boosted their planted cane acreage by +5.4% y/y to 5.6 mln hectares.  In 2021/22, India's sugar production rose +2.9% y/y to 35.8 MMT.  India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.  Also, robust sugar exports from India are bearish for prices after India 2021/22 sugar exports jumped +57% y/y to a record 11 MMT.

In a bearish factor, StoneX on September 18 projected that Brazil Center-South 2023/24 sugar production would climb +5.7% y/y to 35.2 MMT.  StoneX also projects that global 2023/24 sugar production would climb +3% y/y to 194.4 MMT on rising supplies from Brazil, India, and Thailand.  StoneX predicts a 2022/23 global sugar surplus of 3.9 MMT.

This past summer's hot and dry weather in Europe, the world's third-largest sugar producer, caused smaller sugar beet yields and lower sugar production, which is bullish for sugar prices.  Czarnikow Group predicts sugar output in the European Union (EU) and the UK should total 16.4 MMT this year, about 1 MMT lower than last year, which means the EU may have to import more sugar than usual.
 

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