Friday’s wheat trade worked higher after a re-balancing from the Russia related run-up to start the week, and subsequent collapse on Wednesday. On net, December SRW’s 7 1/4 cent gain into the weekend left the contract 18 1/2 cents above last Friday. KC HRW futures ended the day with 10 1/4 to 12 cent gains, pushing the Dec contract to a 28 1/4 cent gain from Friday to Friday. MGE wheat futures ended the week’s final trade day with 11 1/2 to 12 1/2 cent gains.
CFTC’s weekly CoT report had Chicago wheat specs adding 5k new longs and 6.1k new shorts through the week that ended 11/1. That left the group 1,097 contracts more net short to 37,149 contracts. That remains their strongest net short since June of 2020. Managed money firms were 1,218 contracts less net long to 23,408 contracts as of 11/1. That came mostly via net new selling. In spring wheat, managed money had added 208 new longs and lifted 123 shorts for a 1,176 contract net long.
Pre-report estimates show the trade expects USDA to lift U.S. wheat carryout by 500k bushels to 576.5 mbu. The full range of estimates is to see between a 35 mbu reduction to a 30 mbu increase. Global wheat stocks are only expected to tighten by 600k MT ahead of the report, with the full range expecting between 264 MMT and 270 MMT.
U.S. wheat exports were 3.048 MMT in September according to Census data. That was a MY high and was up 32% from Sep ’21. MYTD wheat shipments totaled 8.67 MMT, but down 4% from last year’s pace as the slowest 4 month start since 18/19.
Dec 22 CBOT Wheat closed at $8.47 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,
Mar 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $8.66 3/4, up 7 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat was $7.80 7/8, up 7 1/4 cents,
Dec 22 KCBT Wheat closed at $9.53 1/4, up 12 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $9.11 1/4, up 12 cents,
Dec 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $9.54 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
