Soy Prices Off Lows, now Near Break Even

Overnight Nov beans worked within a 15c range from 9c losses to 6c gains overnight. Currently Nov futures are UNCH, with the rest of the complex showing light losses into the day session. November beans closed 2 1/4 cents higher on Tuesday, with the months’ fractionally to 1 3/4 cents higher. Meal prices ended the day mostly higher but within $1/ton of UNCH. Soy oil prices closed 48 to 59 points lower. 

USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 91% of soybeans nationally are dropping leaves, up from 88% on average. Bean harvest is running 6% points ahead of average with 44% of the crop out. Bean harvest in IL trails their average pace by 12% points with 31% out, and in IA harvest reached 55% complete compared to 36% on average. Soybean conditions scored 5 points higher on the Brugler500 Index at 347. Increases are common in October as yield monitors refine opinions on the remaining crop. 

Weekly Export Inspections data from USDA showed 969,212 MT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 10/6. That was up 384k MT wk/wk but was 775k MT below the same week last year. USDA also included 10.5k MT of shipments to past reports for a season total of 2.8 MMT. Last year we had 3.584 MMT at this point.

Brazilian soybeans were 9.6% planted according to AgRural, slightly behind last year’s pace. 

Trade ideas for today’s reports have average US soybean ending stocks at 244 million bushels, with USDA raising 2022 average yield by 0.1 bpa to 50.6 bpa. World ending stocks ideas average between 97.5 MMT and 103.2 MMT. The average of all estimates is to see the WAOB go with 99.7 MMT. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.76 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents, currently UNCH

Nearby Cash   was $13.25 3/8 on Tuesday, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.88, up 2 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.97, up 1 3/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent