Corn Red for Export Sales

Going into the weekly report the corn market is down by 2 to 3 cents. Corn prices worked both sides of UNCH on Wednesday, but ultimately settled in the black. December traded within a 12 cent range on the day, closing a penny higher. The other front months settled 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents higher. Preliminary open interest showed light new buying interest, up 3,949 contracts. 

EIA reported weekly ethanol output averaged 889k barrels per day through the week that ended 9/30. That was up 34k bpd from the +80-wk low last week. Ethanol stocks fell by over 1m barrels to 21.685 million. That is the lowest supply since December 2021. OPEC+ announced plans to cut daily crude production by 2m barrels per day marking their largest production cut since the pandemic began in 2020. 

Analyst estimates ahead of the Export Sales report are to see between 350k and 800k MT of corn sold from the week that ended 9/29. 

Official corn exports from Census data show 129.8 mbu shipped in August. That was down 28% from July’s export and was 4% lower than August of 2021. The 21/22 campaign ended with an accumulated 2.471 bbu of export – compared to the WASDE forecasted 2.475 bbu. The monthly data also had 981k MT of DDGS exported in August, an 8% drop from July and a 27% drop yr/yr. The full year DDGS exports were 11.58 MMT, compared to 11.6 MMT last year. Ethanol shipments were 77m gallons, the lowest since September of 2021. Sorghum shipments were 284.9k MT in August, which was up from 213k MT in August ’21 – and finished the season with 7.56 MMT. 

USDA’s Ag Attache estimated China’s 22/23 corn production as 270 MMT, a 4 MMT drop from the official WAOB estimate on a lower yield and a 2.5 MMT dip yr/yr. Imports from the report were figured as 18 MMT – matching the official standing estimate. 

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.84, up 1 cent, currently down 3 1/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.65, up 1 7/8 cents,

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.91 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents

May 23 Corn  closed at $6.92 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents, currently down 3 cents