Morning Wheats Red

Front month wheat futures are working lower with double digit weakness in the CBT market. The wheat market ended the session mixed after a wide ranged session that worked mostly higher. Chicago prices settled the day within a penny of UNCH through May ’23 contracts, with December printing a 25 1/2 cent range. KC HRW futures went home 1 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents higher on the day, but settled more than a dime off the high and below the $10/bu mark. Spring wheats closed up by 2 1/4 to 5 3/4 cents. 

The KC-MPLS wheat spread is favoring HRW by 12 1/2 cents (December) through midday. The spread has been working towards KC since spring wheat held a 70c premium back in July. HRW was briefly a premium to HRS in April ’22 and before the 2020 Covid market, else we need to look back to 2014 to see higher HRW prices for the front month.  

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, analysts surveyed expect wheat sales were between 200k and 450k MT. 

Monthly wheat exports were reported at 92.34 mbu for August. That completed the Q1 of 22/23 shipping with 206.55 mbu, a 5-yr low. That marks 25% of the WASDE full year forecast, implying exports are on pace for the 825 mbu total (assuming flat monthly distributions). 

SovEcon estimated the Russian wheat export would reach 43.4 MMT for 22/23, which was 300k MT above their prior estimate despite a slow start. Russian shipments through the first quarter trail their 5-yr average pace by 14%. 

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.02, down 1 cent, currently down 12 3/4 cents

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.15 1/4, down 1/4 cent, currently down 12 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.35 3/4, down 1/8 cent,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.90 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently down 11 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.48, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.81 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents, currently down 5 cents