Overnight Losses Faded into Wheat’s Day Session

Wheat prices are trading fractionally lower on Monday morning after recovering from the initial weakening out of the weekend.  Chicago wheat futures gained 34 1/2 to 42 3/4 cents on the last trade day of the week, which extended the Dec contract’s gain to 58 1/2 cents wk/wk. In KC wheat, Friday trading left the board 35 to 36 1/4 cents higher. Dec HRW was a net 5.9% higher from Friday to Friday. Spring wheat futures closed 29 cents in the black leaving Dec a net 37 1/2 cents above last Friday’s settle.

CFTC data had SRW spec traders at 21,431 contracts net short on September 6. That was a 816 contract weaker net short through the week. For KC wheat, the specs were 11,087 contracts net long after long liquidation. Managed money firms were reducing their net short in spring wheat through the week, taking it to 1,038 contracts as of the 9/6 close. 

Ahead of the monthly S&D estimates from USDA, analysts expect to see a looser carryout on average compared to August. The average estimate going in is 8.1 mbu above the 610 from August, though estimates range from a 40 mbu increase to a 16 mbu decrease. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported harvest reached 99% complete, with 19.5 MMT counted. That is down from 33 MMT last year. IKAR raised their forecast for Russia’s crop 2 MMT to 97 MMT. 

Saskatchewan reported wheat harvest was 42% finished as of 9/8, compared to the 40% average pace. Yields were were mostly near 43 bpa.

Sep 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.53 1/4, up 42 3/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.69 1/2, up 40 1/2 cents, currently down 1/2 cent

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.03 1/8 on Friday, up 41 3/8 cents,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.29 1/4, up 36 1/4 cents, currently down 1/4 cent

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.86 7/8 on Friday, up 36 5/8 cents,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.27 1/2, up 29 1/4 cents, currently down 3 3/4 cents