Front month soybean prices were 2 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents stronger at the close after trading red through midday. Soymeal futures stayed red for the bell, giving back $5.60 to $5.90/ton on the day. BO futures closed with 113 to 136 point gains.
Dalian No2 Soybean Prices (or import quality beans) were 5,170 yuan/MT (~ $20.22/bu), and have remained between 5,000 and 5,250 since mid August. At this time last year prices were 4,558 yuan.
CONAB sees Brazilian soybean output as 125.55 MMT for 21/22, which was up slightly from their August figure.
UNL’s weekly Drought Monitor was little changed wk/wk, with slight improvements in the ECB, but Northern NE getting worse to now a D4 level. The 7-day QPF from NOAA shows +3” of rain along the MN/WI/IA border. The system stretches South West into NE, but weakens to ~1- 1 1/2” over the coming week.
Ahead of the Sep Crop Report, survey respondents expect to see between a 0.1 bpa increase and a 1.2 bpa decrease to the national average soybean yield. The average of estimates is 51.5 bpa going in, which would be a 0.4 cut. NASS has sufficient data to include acreage survey responses from FSA in their Crop Production report essentially a month early. Traders anticipate seeing between 700k additional bean acres to 600k fewer. As for output, analysts expect on average 4.5 bbu, a 31 mbu trim from August.
The monthly Census data for bean shipments confirmed 2.323 MMT were exported in July, up from 948k MT last year. Of that, 539k MT were to China. Chinese Customs data confirmed August soybean imports from all sources were 7.17 MMT, down ~25% from 9.5 MMT in August 2021.
Sep 22 Soybeans closed at $14.70 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $13.57 5/8, up 2 3/8 cents,
Nov 22 Soybeans closed at $13.86, up 2 1/2 cents,
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $13.91 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,
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