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30-Day Fed Funds Jul '19 (ZQN19)

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30-Day Fed Funds Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Lower on Reduced Safe-Haven and Weakness in Bunds

Sep 10-year T-notes on Friday closed down -17.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose +3.6 bp at 2.064%. T-note prices moved lower Friday on the heels of losses in German bunds and on reduced safe-haven demand. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 3-session high of -0.275% Friday after the Eurozone Jun Markit composite PMI rose +0.3 to a 7-month high of 52.1, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 52.0, which was hawkish for ECB policy and negative for bund prices. T-notes were also undercut by reduced safe-haven demand after President Trump late Thursday decided against launching a retaliatory strike on Iran in response to Thursday's downing of a U.S. drone by Iran. A supportive factor for T-note prices Friday was a dovish comment from Fed Vice Chair Clarida who said, "the case for providing more accommodation has increased" and we'll act appropriately to sustain the expansion. Also, weak U.S. manufacturing data Friday was bullish for T-note prices after the U.S. Jun Markit manufacturing index fell -0.4 to a 9-3/4 year low of 50.1, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 50.5. The market is discounting the odds at 100% for a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on July 30-31. Inflation expectations weakened Friday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell -1.1 bp to 1.735%, which is well above Monday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) market expectations of a 100% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the July FOMC meeting after the FOMC downgraded its assessment of economic activity to "moderate" from May's "solid" and removed its reference to being "patient" on interest rates, (2) the FOMC's cut in its 2019 core PCE estimate to 1.8% from March's 2.0% and cut in its 2020 median Fed funds rate forecast by -50 bp to 2.1% from 2.6% projected in March, (3) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2-3/4 year low of 1.61%, (4) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (5) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's balance sheet draw-down program that will last through September, (2) record high stock prices, and (3) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
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